Analysts at TD Securities explained that the North American markets started the week on a quiet note despite ongoing uncertainty around trade policy following President Trump’s threat of expanded import tariffs on Chinese goods.
“Equities were mixed (SPX: +0.2%, TSX: -0.1%) while rates were little changed on either side of the border, with Canada outperforming by ~1 bp in 2s. GBP (+0.8%) was the top performing G10 currency against the USD after the EU’s Barnier announced that a Brexit deal within eight weeks was “realistic” and lawmakers were working towards a summit in mid-October. Positive sentiment spilled over into EUR (+0.4%) while NOK (+0.7%) rallied on CPI data. Australian business confidence and conditions are the main data for today ahead of a busy European session.
What We’re Watching in Markets
“Market sentiment has shrugged off Trump’s recent escalation of global trade wars and higher-than-expected wage growth in the US. For the USD, global equity divergence has been a key driver the past few months, which argues that any convergence with US share prices could help to cement a floor in the likes of EUR and JPY. Treasuries will remain focused on trade news, Fed speak, and Thursday’s CPI report in the near-term. We look for 5s30 curve flattening to persist.”